French President Emmanuel Macron used a state visit to Qatar on Wednesday to warn that Gulf security remains fragile. After talks with Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, he called for extreme caution so rising tensions do not reignite the war with Iran.
Macron told the media he was "very cautious because no one can tell how the situation will evolve in the next days and weeks." He said Israel’s elections and the US midterm elections create a period that can lead to tensions, and that diplomatic efforts must be doubled so those tensions do not bring a resumption of conflict. He added that there is a great deal of uncertainty and that he would not comment on measures taken by either side.
Gulf countries are bracing for a possible return to wider fighting as the United States rebuilds a large strike force in the region, including a third aircraft carrier and thousands of troops, described as the largest US naval and air presence in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The State Department ordered non-essential US government employees and their families to leave Saudi Arabia, saying "the hostilities have the potential to escalate rapidly beyond that immediate area." Spokesperson Tommy Pigott called reports of similar orders for the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Qatar and Bahrain "inaccurate," saying the ordered departure covered Saudi Arabia only and followed growing Houthi attacks. On Monday, Washington warned US citizens in 12 Middle Eastern countries — Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, the UAE, Yemen and Iran — of risks to US interests.
Iran says it has reorganised its defences and that any attack would draw a devastating, longer response against US interests and civilian infrastructure across the region. Iranian officials and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have spoken of "100% certainty" that the United States and Israel will attack again. Iranian reports said Tehran activated its Mosaic Defence doctrine, giving local commanders target lists so fighting could continue if central command were destroyed. On Thursday, Tehran said seven oil tankers caught fire or were damaged in the Strait of Hormuz after being hit by Iran or striking naval mines. Iran still asserts control of the waterway, a main point of leverage in talks with Washington.
President Donald Trump has said any consideration of a new attack on Iran would come after the US midterm elections. The New York Times, quoting US officials, reported that Washington and Israel have prepared strike plans for after those elections, with likely targets including Iran’s energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities and missile and drone arsenals, in order to push Tehran toward a deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth met Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week to discuss regional threats. Netanyahu said the Tehran regime has to be finally overthrown and accused Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei of again trying to develop what he called the bombs of death. Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as supreme leader after his father, Ali Khamenei, was killed in US-Israeli strikes on Tehran on 28 February, and he has not been seen in public amid continued questions about his health.
Earlier this week, dozens of Israeli fighter jets and refuelling aircraft flew toward the Iranian border and turned back. The Times of Israel described the sorties as an exercise and a show of force, while US officials have questioned whether they were meant to test Iranian air defences and provoke fire. Opposition leader Yair Lapid said that, "based on the information available to me, there is absolutely no reason to attack Iran or anywhere else before the elections." Qatar and Pakistan are leading mediation. A return to all-out war would again endanger civilians across the region, disrupt deliveries of oil, natural gas and fertiliser, and likely push energy prices higher worldwide.