When Israelis go to the polls on 27 October, they will decide whether Benjamin Netanyahu, the country's longest-serving prime minister, remains in power. CNN reports from Tel Aviv that many voters see the choice as more consequential than recent elections: not only who leads, but the direction of the country.
It is the first national vote since the Hamas-led attack of 7 October 2023, described as the deadliest security failure in Israel's history, and the wars that followed in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. Those wars mobilised much of the country and deepened Israel's international isolation. Voters can judge the leadership that presided over the 7 October failures, who should lead in conflict, and who should carry a heavier burden of military service.
Netanyahu's outgoing government, the first in decades to finish a full four-year term, relied on far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners and pushed Israel in a more nationalist and religious direction. He became the first sitting Israeli prime minister to stand trial on corruption charges while his government pursued a judicial overhaul aimed at weakening the supreme court. That effort sparked massive protests in 2023. Polls suggest neither his bloc nor the opposition is likely to win a majority alone, so the result may open another political crisis. Coalition building can take days, weeks or months.
Israelis vote for party lists. Of 37 lists registered this cycle, only those passing a 3.25% threshold enter the 120-seat Knesset. Polls suggest 11 to 13 parties will qualify. The largest are Netanyahu's Likud and Yashar, a new centrist party led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot. A Channel 12 poll puts Eisenkot on 23 seats and Likud on 21; on Channel 14, Likud is projected at 30 and Eisenkot at about 20. In head-to-head matchups, Eisenkot has led on who is better suited to be prime minister. A prime minister needs 61 seats, and no party has ever won that alone.
Most polls put Netanyahu's bloc — Likud, two far-right parties led by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, and two ultra-Orthodox parties — at 49 to 55 seats. The opposition is fragmented: former prime minister Naftali Bennett and former defence minister Avigdor Liberman sit to Eisenkot's right and have not endorsed him, while Yair Golan leads the Democrats to his left. Any alternative government would probably need Arab parties' support or abstention, and several opposition leaders have ruled out cooperation. Deadlock, a minority or unity government, or another election are all described as plausible.
Small parties near the threshold, wasted votes and turnout could decide the map. Palestinian citizens of Israel are about 20% of the population. Arab turnout was 53.2% in 2022 against a general turnout of 70.6%; pollsters expect it to exceed 60% this time, which would raise the threshold. Parties at risk include Smotrich's Religious Zionism and a new right-wing list led by retired general Ofer Winter. Israel does not allow overseas voting except for diplomatic staff. Official data suggest more than 11% of 7.3 million eligible voters, about 810,000 people, live abroad, and thousands plan to fly home to vote.
In a Channel 12 poll, 21% rank the economy and cost of living first, ahead of ultra-Orthodox conscription at 17%, the 7 October failure at 14% and the war with Iran at 10%. Among Netanyahu's voters the Iran war leads at 21%; among opposition voters the 7 October failure leads at 28%. A September survey by the Achord centre at Hebrew University found 58% of voters aged 22 to 34 said cost of living and housing would drive their vote, and 36% cited security.
In a Channel 10 interview, Netanyahu addressed international condemnation of West Bank settlements and said Israel should prepare for possible international banking sanctions by developing an economy that can circumvent them. He said cryptocurrency and blockchain are being considered. The Bank of Israel publicly rejected the idea and said that cryptocurrencies cannot serve as a means of circumventing sanctions. Eisenkot mocked the proposal as BibiCoin, called it a threat to national security and accused Netanyahu of planning to dismantle the Israeli economy for generations ahead.
Netanyahu was prime minister on 7 October, when Hamas crossed the border, killing more than 1,200 Israelis and taking 251 hostages into Gaza. He has resisted personal responsibility and rejected a state commission of inquiry. Eisenkot's son Gal, 25, was killed fighting in Gaza in December 2023. The military says it is missing more than 12,000 personnel; ultra-Orthodox men have long had a blanket exemption for religious study, and all opposition parties pledge universal service.
The outgoing government was among the most hardline on Palestinian issues. Smotrich, finance minister and overseer of civil administration in the occupied West Bank, pushed to expand settlements and withheld tax revenues from the Palestinian Authority. Ben-Gvir championed a death-penalty law, toughened conditions for Palestinian prisoners and weakened police enforcement against settler violence. Both opposed ending the Gaza war, advocate settlements in Gaza and envision full annexation and Jewish control of the West Bank. Smotrich wants to cancel the Oslo Accords, dismantle the Palestinian Authority and go to war in the West Bank. Ben-Gvir has said he will demand the defence ministry and has called for Palestinian emigration from Gaza and the West Bank. Eisenkot, like Netanyahu, has rejected Palestinian statehood.
The wars in Gaza and Lebanon, the conflict with Iran and the surge in settler violence have left Israel's diplomatic standing at its weakest in decades. Netanyahu faces an International Criminal Court warrant alleging war crimes in Gaza and avoids most European countries because of the risk of arrest. US President Donald Trump endorsed him, but a March 2026 Pew Research Center poll found 60% of US adults held an unfavourable view of Israel and 59% had little or no confidence in Netanyahu on global affairs. Pew's Spring 2026 Global Attitudes Survey found majorities in most of 36 countries holding unfavourable views of Israel and its prime minister.
The shift has been sharpest in Western Europe. The United Kingdom, France and Canada are among countries that have recognised a Palestinian state and imposed sanctions and trade restrictions on Israeli settlements and on individuals and entities linked to settler violence. Ben-Gvir and Smotrich have been personally sanctioned and face travel bans from multiple Western countries. A returned Netanyahu government would likely face growing pressure; a government led by Eisenkot or another opposition figure might ease tensions at first, without a clean slate on security and foreign policy.